MARKET OVERVIEW
The Employment Situation: ‘U.S. Job Growth Sinks in October After Storms and Labor Strikes’
The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October and has stabilized in the last few months after gradually climbing in the first half of the year.
JOBS ADDED IN OCTOBER
The labor market added only 12,000 jobs in October, less than the 100,000 number predicted by economists, though disruptions due to hurricanes and strikes largely impacted that figure.
COMBINED JOB ADDS FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised employment numbers for September from 254,000 job adds to 223,000 and August employment numbers from 159,000 to 78,000. With these revisions, the BLS reported combined job adds for August and September of 301,000, 112,000 lower than previously reported.
NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN SEPTEMBER
The number of job openings in September fell to 7.44 million, its lowest level since January 2021. The number of hires hit 5.56 million in September, up from 5.44 million in August.
QUITS RATE
The quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 1.9% in September, down from a revised 2% in August. This marks the lowest quits rate since June 2020.
Jeremy Darron
Managing Partner
"There was a lot of cautious optimism in Q3 leading up to the U.S. presidential election. The jobs numbers were relatively flat, however, we are seeing increased confidence from our customers. Companies are making decisions more quickly, and we had an uptick in new hires towards the end of Q3. Quit rates are still low, and with so much uncertainty ahead, we are largely seeing employees staying in their current roles instead of looking for other opportunities. We are expecting an increase in hiring beginning in the first quarter of 2025 after we have more certainty on the political front and in the economy.”
MARKET OVERVIEW
Staffing Industry Indicator
1
The November 2024 U.S. Jobs Report (published on November 1) estimates that employment in the temporary help services industry in October dropped 7% year-over-year, a decline of 1.8% compared to September.
2
Temporary help services employment numbers declined by 48,500 jobs in October. The BLS also revised September’s numbers from a loss of 13,800 jobs to a loss of 20,200 jobs.
3
Professional staffing hours were down 14% year-over-year in October, while total staffing hours hit their highest level year-to-date in October, 7% below the numbers for the same period in 2023.
4
The Staffing Industry Indicator was consistent for professional staffing hours in October. The year-over-year decline is directionally in line with the decline in temporary help employment as reported in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly Employment Situation reports.
Lauren Becker
Managing Partner
"While 2024 has been full of political and economic uncertainties, there are signs of more hiring in the fourth quarter. Many organizations are revisiting projects previously paused in 2024, such as system upgrades, investments, and acquisitions, as they plan for their 2025 budgets.
As the job market opens, workers are beginning to seek new opportunities, with work-life balance being a top priority. Companies that offer flexibility and hybrid work options will have a competitive edge in terms of attracting and retaining top talent.”
MARKET OVERVIEW
Recession Watch 2024
'We are pointed in the right direction’'
October’s inflation data met expectations, which keeps the Federal Reserve on track for a December rate cut. But core inflation, especially in housing and food, is still above the Fed’s 2% target. While the incoming administration’s policies could add inflationary pressure in the future, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the prospect of such changes won’t affect the Fed’s immediate decisions. Meanwhile, economists are keeping an eye on inflation risks, particularly in housing and energy, as prices in these areas remain stubbornly high. Sources: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Consumers Keep Economy on Solid Ground
- The Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut in November, lowering rates by a quarter percentage point, from 4.75% to 4.5%. Economists predict an additional quarter point rate cut in December.
- The U.S. economy grew solidly again in the third quarter, bolstering the belief that the country can avoid a recession.
- The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department. That’s down slightly from a 3% increase in the second quarter and 2.9% for all of 2023.
- Consumer spending drove the bulk of the economy’s growth last quarter. It increased at an annualized rate of 3.7% in Q3, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2023.
- The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation, rose 0.3% in October. It’s up 3.3% year over year for the third consecutive month.
Matt Raymond
Managing Partner
"It's no secret that hiring is often flat during an election year. Now that the election is over, despite some continued uncertainty around the potential for rising prices, we’re feeling some excitement and momentum from employers.
As for workers, inflation doesn’t seem to be affecting their desire to change jobs. Those who are looking for new opportunities are doing so based on what’s best for their careers.”
